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Don’t Be the Last to Sell


While the grain markets are in the doldrums, the big news is all of the farmer-owned grain in elevators and on the farm. That’s why I recommend you sell a portion of your grain each month.

Let’s look at how we got to this point. We’d hoped the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Jan. 12 crop report would move the markets. It turned out, however, that the USDA’s numbers were right where traders thought they’d be.

It’s also clear the world has plenty of corn, soybeans, and wheat. While supplies are large, demand is just okay. Until we see some type of weather issue, I don’t know what would change the markets.

That’s especially true since it appears there will be plenty of grain into the foreseeable future. The U.S. corn surplus looks like it will be around 1.8 billion bushels. Keep in mind supplies don’t start to feel tight until they drop to 1.5 or even 1.2 billion bushels.

The story is similar with soybeans. The USDA is projecting that by the end of the summer, there’ll be 400 million bushels of soybeans on hand. That’s double what we really need. Supplies won’t start to feel tight until we get down to 250 or 200 million bushels.

When’s the best time to sell?
In years like this, the best selling opportunities will probably occur between now and the end of May. I urge you to consider selling some grain each month.

If too many farmers hang onto grain for too long, July and August could be ugly. Don’t be the last one to sell your grain.

If you have questions about grain marketing, contact me at 877-753-5400 to discuss practical strategies. Also, check our grain updates at www.firstcoop.com. Our grain team looks forward to working with you.
Randy Dunn
Grain Department Manager
Office: 877-753-5400
rdunn@firstcoop.com

See other stories from this month's First Coop Association News:

MANAGEMENT: We’re in This Together
AGRONOMY: Is My Nitrogen Still There?
FEED: Distractions Abound, Stay Focused
ENERGY: It’s Time to Hold Off